It's been 15 years now, since the financial crash in 2008, that the Western world has been lurching from one crisis to another. Some of these crises could be seen coming, but most were unexpected. None of this is new: modern historians acknowledge that history is made primarily by chance events and unexpected developments, and that people are rarely prepared for them. As a society, organisation or individual, is it then possible to guard against the unexpected? Are there methods you can use to see it coming more effectively?